Disaggregating and Projecting Electricity Demand in China (2017-2018)

Decisions about electric power development are difficult to make. Achieving energy and environmental goals while satisfying the electric power needs and supporting economic growth requires an information-driven planning process that considers the economic, environmental and reliability implications of using energy sources and key demand-side alternatives such as end-use energy efficiency and demand-side management.

This team examined the determinants of electricity demand in order to project different electricity demand scenarios at a high temporal and spatial resolution in developing countries. Focusing specifically on China, the team developed a computer-based model to project future residential electricity demand from the bottom up. The model is designed to consider different scenarios of population and household size, economic growth, technological change and human behavior.

Team members spent three weeks in Beijing in Summer 2017 collecting data on appliance ownership from 120 households in order to project adoption of electric appliances (including a PC, TV, washing machine, refrigerator, AC and microwave oven) in Chinese households. The team also developed a closed cohort-component model in Stella software to project Chinese population and growth.


Summer 2017 – Spring 2018

Team Outputs

Mingquan Li, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, Junfeng Zhang. “Policies to Promote Energy Efficiency and Air Emissions Reductions in China’s Electric Power Generation Sector During the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan Periods: Achievements, Remaining Challenges, and Opportunities.” 2019. Energy Policy 125:429-444.

Mingquan Li, Rui Shan, Mauricio Hernandez, Varun Mallampalli, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri. “Effects of Population, Urbanization, Household Size, and Income on Electric Appliance and Adoption in the Chinese Residential Sector Towards 2050.” 2019.  Applied Energy 236:293-306.

China’s Electricity Future: A Provincial Scenario Analysis towards 2050 (poster by Mingquan Li, Rui Shan, Mauricio Hernandez, Varun Mallampalli, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri), presented at Bass Connections Showcase, April 18, 2018

This Team in the News

These Ph.D. Graduates Leveraged Bass Connections and Other Interdisciplinary Opportunities

Energy Student Profile: Aubrey Zhang (MPP ’18)

See earlier related team, Modeling Tools for Energy Systems Analysis (MOTESA) (2016-2017).

Professor Patino-Echeverri and Postdoctoral Researcher were invited to Peking University China to give a talk

Team Leaders

  • Mingquan Li, Nicholas School of the Environment-Environmental Sciences and Policy
  • Varun Mallampalli, Pratt–Civil
  • Dalia Patino Echeverri, Nicholas School of the Environment-Environmental Sciences and Policy

/graduate Team Members

  • Ziting Huang, Master of Environmental Management, Energy and Environment, International Development Pol
  • Qingran Li, Environmental Policy-PHD
  • Chuwen Liang, Master of Environmental Management, Environmental Economics/Policy, International Development Pol
  • Xuebei Tan, Master of Environmental Management, Energy and Environment
  • Jun Zhang, Master of Environmental Management, Energy and Environment
  • Aubrey (Yuchen) Zhang, Masters of Public Policy

/undergraduate Team Members

  • Yanwen Chen, Economics (BS), Public Policy Studies (AB2)
  • Yutao Gong, Environmental Sciences (BS)
  • Lin Zuo, Statistical Science (BS), Computer Science (AB2)

/yfaculty/staff Team Members

  • Mark Borsuk, Pratt School of Engineering-Civil & Environmental Engineering