Disaggregating and Projecting Electricity Demand in China (2017-2018)
Decisions about electric power development are difficult to make. Achieving energy and environmental goals while satisfying the electric power needs and supporting economic growth requires an information-driven planning process that considers the economic, environmental and reliability implications of using energy sources and key demand-side alternatives such as end-use energy efficiency and demand-side management.
This team examined the determinants of electricity demand in order to project different electricity demand scenarios at a high temporal and spatial resolution in developing countries. Focusing specifically on China, the team developed a computer-based model to project future residential electricity demand from the bottom up. The model is designed to consider different scenarios of population and household size, economic growth, technological change and human behavior.
Team members spent three weeks in Beijing in Summer 2017 collecting data on appliance ownership from 120 households in order to project adoption of electric appliances (including a PC, TV, washing machine, refrigerator, AC and microwave oven) in Chinese households. The team also developed a closed cohort-component model in Stella software to project Chinese population and growth.
Summer 2017 – Spring 2018
China’s Electricity Future: A Provincial Scenario Analysis towards 2050 (poster by Mingquan Li, Rui Shan, Mauricio Hernandez, Varun Mallampalli, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri), presented at Bass Connections Showcase, April 18, 2018
This Team in the News
See earlier related team, Modeling Tools for Energy Systems Analysis (MOTESA) (2016-2017).
- Mingquan Li, Nicholas School of the Environment-Environmental Sciences and Policy
- Varun Mallampalli, Pratt School of Engineering-Civil & Environmental Engineering-Ph.D. Student
- Dalia Patino Echeverri, Nicholas School of the Environment-Environmental Sciences and Policy
/graduate Team Members
Ziting Huang, Master of Environmental Management, Energy and Environment, International Development Pol
Qingran Li, Environmental Policy-PHD
Chuwen Liang, Master of Environmental Management, Environmental Economics/Policy, International Development Pol
Xuebei Tan, Master of Environmental Management, Energy and Environment
Jun Zhang, Master of Environmental Management, Energy and Environment
Aubrey (Yuchen) Zhang, Masters of Public Policy
/undergraduate Team Members
Yanwen Chen, Economics (BS), Public Policy Studies (AB2)
Yutao Gong, Environmental Sciences (BS), Statistical Science (BS2)
Lin Zuo, Statistical Science (BS), Computer Science (AB2)
/yfaculty/staff Team Members
Mark Borsuk, Pratt School of Engineering-Civil & Environmental Engineering