Energy Transition During Energy Crisis: Cape Town's Experience (2025-2026)

South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), announced at COP26, aims to support the country’s transition away from fossil fuels while addressing the social and economic consequences of decarbonization. At the same time, South Africa is experiencing a severe electricity crisis marked by widespread load shedding caused by aging infrastructure, governance challenges and rising demand. These overlapping dynamics raise critical questions about whether the benefits and burdens of the energy transition are being distributed equitably.

This project team examined the justice implications of the energy transition during an ongoing electricity crisis, focusing on Cape Town as a case study of deep spatial and socioeconomic inequality. Building on work from a previous team, students used a combination of machine learning, econometric analysis and energy systems modeling to evaluate how electricity outages, solar adoption and energy policy interact across communities.

Team members organized into three subteams:

1. One subteam developed a machine learning model to detect rooftop solar panels and solar water heaters from aerial imagery collected between 2018 and 2023. The team also created a visualization tool to evaluate predictions over time and refine assumptions about solar installation persistence. 
2. A second subteam conducted econometric analyses to examine whether load shedding was distributed equally across Cape Town and to assess how solar home system adoption affects electricity consumption from the national grid. Their results showed that low-income areas experienced longer-than-scheduled outages, while wealthier neighborhoods adopted rooftop solar at much higher rates. 
3. A third subteam built an energy systems model of Cape Town’s electricity system to simulate future policy scenarios. Scenario analysis showed that while pro-solar policies can expand total solar capacity, they may reinforce inequality unless paired with targeted subsidies. In contrast, policies supporting low- and middle-income households significantly increased equitable adoption.

Together, the team’s analysis highlights how energy transition policies can unintentionally reinforce existing disparities if equity considerations are not explicitly incorporated into policy design. 

Timing

Fall 2025 – Spring 2026

Team Outputs

Energy Transition During Energy Crisis: Cape Town’s Experience (Poster presentation at the Fortin Foundation Bass Connections Showcase, April 15, 2026)

Energy Transition and Inequality in Cape Town (Team profile)

Machine learning model for rooftop solar and solar water heater identification using aerial imagery

Visualization tool for evaluating solar detection model predictions over time

Econometric analysis of load shedding distribution and solar home system adoption in Cape Town

Energy systems scenario model evaluating solar policy and equity outcomes

Integrated dataset on distributed solar adoption and electricity outages in Cape Town

Manuscript in progress

See related teams, Energy Transition During Energy Crisis: Cape Town's Experience (Data+, Summer 2025) and Energy Transition During Energy Crisis: Cape Town’s Experience (2024-2025)