Earthquake Early Warning in Kathmandu (2024-2025)

This project team is expanding an ongoing collaboration between faculty and students at Duke University and Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu to design, deploy and operate a smart seismic sensing network in Nepal’s capital. The effort addresses the urgent need for earthquake early warning (EEW) and hazard mitigation in a region uniquely vulnerable to major seismic events. Building on prior work, the team integrates public policy, social science, engineering and data science to improve detection, prediction and public readiness for earthquakes, while fostering in-country expertise and stakeholder engagement to support system sustainability.

In 2025, the team advanced key technical milestones, including upgrading Internet-of-Things code development from the beginner’s level Arduino IDE to the more-functional ESP-IDF platform, enhancing the precision of high-resolution recording instruments and integrating sensors into a webserver to enable real-time data streaming and open-data access. They also developed data science models capable of predicting peak ground motion intensity with an 85% correlation, a step toward timely alerts that can save lives. A mixed-methods survey was used to understand human behavioral responses to ground motion and a semi-structured survey to assess government stakeholders’ knowledge and expectations for EEW systems.

The team also analyzed potential failure modes in earthquake-resistant furniture, friction-based sliding isolation for various building types, and the dynamics of pounding between closely spaced buildings. These efforts contribute to a more integrated EEW system for Nepal, combining technical innovation with behavioral insights and policy engagement. By pairing capacity building in Nepal with cutting-edge research at Duke, the project is strengthening the foundation for a nationally financed, region-wide seismic monitoring network that can help mitigate the human and economic toll of the country’s next major earthquake.

Timing

Spring 2025 - Summer 2025

Team Outputs

Kathmandu Geo Lab

Kathmandu Geo Lab Symposium (poster presentation, Hotel Himalaya, Nepal, May 23, 2025)

Interdisciplinary Earthquake Early Warning For and With Kathmandu (Poster presentation at Fortin Foundation Bass Connections Showcase, April 16, 2025)