Asteroid Science: A Tool for Planetary Defense, Law and Policy (2026-2027)
Background
Near-earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and meteors pose real, if infrequent, threats to Earth and nearby space environments. Recent events highlight the limitations of current detection systems. In early 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4 — roughly 60 meters wide — was briefly predicted to hit Earth but now carries a 4% chance of impacting the moon, where it could endanger satellites, rocket launches and future lunar settlements. In 2023, asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected only seven hours before exploding over France. In 2013, the undetected Chelyabinsk meteor injured more than 3,000 people.
Only seven NEOs have ever been detected prior to Earth entry. Many are visible for just days or weeks, and factors such as satellite glare, light pollution and atmospheric distortion further limit precision. The planetary defense community is small, telescope use is often restricted for national security reasons and public awareness of asteroid hazards remains low.
As asteroid discovery increases and humanity expands activity on Earth, in orbit and on the moon, science, policy and law must work together to improve global readiness. This project addresses that need by integrating technical research with legal and policy frameworks for planetary defense.
Project Description
This project team will develop an integrated asteroid impact risk-assessment tool that connects planetary-defense science with policy decision-making. Students will explore both scientific and legal dimensions of asteroid detection, risk modeling and governance.
Work will focus on four major goals:
- Characterizing real-world detection scenarios: Students will analyze past impactors such as 2024 YR4, 2023 CX1 and the Chelyabinsk meteor to quantify warning times and detection limitations.
- Improving detection precision through advanced observational techniques: Students will help develop and test innovations including:
- Topocentric parallax for rapid distance prediction using single or multiple observatories.
- Atmospheric refraction correction to reduce positional distortion in telescopic images.
- Synthetic tracking to more effectively capture fast-moving NEOs in stacked images.
- Stray-light mitigation using ultrablack optical coatings to suppress satellite reflections during observation.
- Modeling uncertainty and simulating asteroid impact corridors: Using Monte Carlo simulations and impact modeling, students will generate evolving probability distributions for Earth and Moon impact zones and model related hazards such as shock waves, wind effects and crater size.
- Translating scientific results into law and policy contexts: Students will work with legal scholars and policymakers to map scientific uncertainty to legal responsibility. This includes exploring frameworks such as the Outer Space Treaty and the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS), and identifying thresholds for warnings, liability and global coordination.
The project team will collaborate with astronomers, engineers, legal experts and policy specialists to create a scientifically grounded, legally interpretable tool for planetary defense.
Anticipated Outputs
- Prototype asteroid impact risk and policy assessment tool
- Parallax and atmospheric-refraction datasets and algorithms
- Physical ultrablack coating prototype
- Simulation and visualization pipeline for uncertainty modeling
- Publications linking planetary defense with legal analysis
- Poster and oral presentations for conferences and showcase
- Preliminary research supporting future NASA Planetary Defense grant proposals
- Possible discovery of new asteroids
Student Opportunities
Ideally, this project team will include 2 graduate students and 4 undergraduate students. Students from physics, astronomy, computer engineering, electrical engineering, data science, law or public policy are encouraged to apply. Anyone with a strong interest in planetary defense, space science or space law is welcome, regardless of prior technical experience.
Team members will learn:
- Asteroid detection methods and orbit determination
- Data analysis, simulation and coding in Python
- Optical engineering techniques for stray-light mitigation
- Impact modeling and risk analysis
- Science communication and technical writing
- How scientific results inform public safety and policy decision-making
Students will work closely with researchers, faculty in physics and engineering, and collaborators in Duke Law and Public Policy. They will also collaborate with high school students from the North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics. Leadership roles will rotate, giving each student experience coordinating research activities.
Weekly meetings will include coding tutorials, progress updates and data analysis sessions. Members will share code through GitHub and will have workspace access with Duke’s cosmology group.
Timing
Fall 2026 – Summer 2027
Summer 2026 (optional):
- Build methodology for detection and modeling techniques
- Begin impact modeling pipeline
Fall 2026:
- Continue method development
- Guide students through observational, coding and modeling tasks
Spring 2027:
- Complete scientific goals
- Present work at planetary defense conferences
- Begin law and policy translation work
Summer 2027 (optional):
- Co-author research papers
- Support undergraduates writing companion papers
Crediting
Academic credit available for fall and spring semesters