Integrated Natural Hazard Monitoring for the Kathmandu Valley (2026-2027)

Background

Nepal faces two escalating natural hazards: earthquakes and air pollution. The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake caused nearly 9,000 deaths, 22,000 injuries, the displacement of 3.5 million people and an economic loss equivalent to almost half of Nepal’s GDP. Scientists warn that tectonic stress redistribution has increased the likelihood of another major rupture along the Main Himalayan Thrust, potentially more damaging than 2015.

At the same time, air pollution is now the number one health risk factor in Nepal. Kathmandu and other urban regions consistently exceed WHO air quality guidelines, yet the country lacks a reliable, publicly accessible air quality monitoring system.

Since 2019, Duke and Tribhuvan University (TU) have built a collaborative platform — the Kathmandu Geo Lab — to strengthen Nepal’s hazard monitoring through student research, engineering innovation and community engagement. This project extends six years of work on earthquake early warning and incorporates a new parallel effort to evaluate and upgrade Nepal’s low-cost air quality sensor network.

Project Description

This project will advance two complementary natural hazard monitoring systems — earthquake early warning and air quality surveillance — through interdisciplinary collaboration between Duke and Tribhuvan University’s Institute of Engineering (IOE).

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS)

Building on prior student research, the team will:

Improve low-noise seismic signal processing and feature extraction
Refine cross-sensor modeling and calibration
Apply machine learning to enhance early detection capabilities
Study human behavior and communication challenges associated with earthquake alerts
Continue engineering design work on earthquake-safe furniture and community preparedness tools

Air Quality Monitoring

Duke’s Civil and Environmental Engineering program previously deployed 70 low-cost sensors across Nepal. The 2026-2027 team will:

Analyze the full 2021-2024 dataset to assess sensor accuracy, drift and data quality
Conduct a pilot deployment of 2-3 updated sensors over 8-12 weeks to test reliability and quality assurance methods
Develop calibration protocols, maintenance routines and data governance structures
Produce a deployment blueprint for a new community-led 2027-2028 nationwide network (site selection, SOPs, training materials)

Cross-Institutional Collaboration

Due to offset academic calendars, Duke and IOE teams will work in staggered but continuous cycles:

Fall: Duke students onboard; TU students finish exams and join by mid-November
Spring: Weekly joint subteam meetings and integrated research
May: Co-organize and present at the Kathmandu Geo Lab Symposium, featuring 15-20 posters and multi-stakeholder engagement

All results will be shared publicly through the Kathmandu Geo Lab website.

Anticipated Outputs

Updated seismic sensing and data processing algorithms
Publicly accessible seismic recording database
Engineering designs for earthquake-safe furniture
Social science findings on alert perception and disaster behavior
Comprehensive analysis of 2021-2024 air quality sensor data
Pilot test results showing ≥ 80% uptime for updated sensors
Blueprint for 2027-2028 community-led monitoring network
White paper on national network design
Fourth Kathmandu Geo Lab Symposium in May 2027
Public dataset releases, SOPs and training materials

Student Opportunities

The team will include 2 graduate students and 8 undergraduate students spanning engineering, computer/data science, environmental studies, statistics, public policy, international development and related disciplines.

Students will gain experience in:

Sensor design, microcontrollers, embedded systems and calibration
Machine learning and statistical analysis for hazard detection
Geospatial, environmental and time-series data processing
Survey design, stakeholder mapping and community engagement
International collaboration and cross-cultural teamwork
Symposium planning and public communication
Disaster preparedness, resilience planning and environmental governance

Students with Nepali language skills or regional familiarity are welcome but not required.

Timing

Summer 2026 – Summer 2027

Summer 2026 (optional):

Onboarding preparation, preliminary stakeholder meetings in Kathmandu
Air quality sensor procurement and testing
Seismic sensor maintenance and literature review

Fall 2026:

Literature reviews and research question development
Initial analysis of 2021-2024 air quality data
Algorithm development for seismic signal processing
Stakeholder mapping and technical workshops
IOE student onboarding in November

Spring 2027:

Weekly Duke-IOE collaboration
Pilot deployment of 2-3 air quality sensors
Seismic network upgrades and machine learning analyses
Stakeholder interviews and surveys
Preparation of training materials, SOPs and symposium posters
May 2027 Kathmandu Geo Lab Symposium (15-20 posters)

Summer 2027 (optional):

Student travel to Kathmandu for symposium, sensor installation and stakeholder meetings
Compilation of white paper and preparation of funding proposals

Crediting

Academic credit available for fall and spring semesters

See earlier related team, Earthquake Early Warning in Kathmandu (2025-2026).