Effects of Armed Conflict on Intimate Partner Violence in Peru (2026-2027)

Background

Internal armed conflict reshapes societies in ways that extend far beyond the period of violence itself. Exposure to organized conflict can alter social norms, institutional trust, coping strategies and interpersonal behavior, influencing patterns of aggression, authority and gender dynamics long after violence has ended. Research has linked conflict exposure to detrimental educational, health and economic outcomes, yet far less is understood about its long-term effects on family relationships — especially intimate partner violence (IPV).

Peru’s internal armed conflict (IAC), which lasted from 1980 to 2000, provides a unique opportunity to examine these questions. The conflict was regionally concentrated, and the country maintains an unusually detailed national archive of victimization — the Registro Único de Víctimas (RUV) — documenting more than 350,000 individual records of killings, disappearances, forced displacement, kidnapping and sexual violence. Today, many of the regions most heavily affected by IAC continue to report high rates of intimate partner violence (IPV). Linking historical conflict exposure to contemporary health survey data allows researchers to explore how early-life experiences of violence shape adult relationships, norms and vulnerability to IPV.

Project Description

This interdisciplinary project will investigate whether people who grew up near sites of intense IAC violence face higher risks of experiencing or perpetrating IPV as adults. The team will integrate tools from economics, global health, conflict studies and data science to construct new linked datasets and analyze causal mechanisms.

The project will proceed in three main stages:

Creating a linked conflict-IPV dataset
The team will clean, reconcile and document the RUV dataset — which includes detailed records on more than 150,000 victims and 230,000 violent events — and link it to the Demographic and Health Survey (ENDES), Peru’s national household health survey that measures physical, sexual and emotional IPV. Spatial mapping and geocoding will enable the creation of a publicly documented dataset for long-term research use.

Estimating causal impacts of childhood conflict exposure
Using Peru’s 1980s “emergency zones” — areas placed under special military control that created sharp administrative boundaries — the team will apply a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to compare individuals who lived just inside versus just outside these boundaries. This natural experiment allows for rigorous inference about the causal effect of childhood exposure to conflict on adult IPV outcomes.

Understanding pathways and mechanisms
The team will examine whether patterns in trauma, migration, social capital, alcohol use, economic insecurity or gender norms help explain the relationship between conflict and IPV. Analyses will draw on interdisciplinary theory and use mediation and interaction models to test competing pathways.

All analyses will rely exclusively on de-identified, secondary data and will not involve human subjects. Students will engage in data cleaning, geospatial analysis, code replication, causal inference, literature synthesis and communication of findings to academic and policy audiences.

Anticipated Outputs

• Cleaned and cross-validated dataset linking RUV conflict exposure and IPV indicators
• Interactive map visualizing geographic overlap between IAC violence and IPV incidence
• Data documentation guide and open-science repository
• Research brief or blog post translating findings for policy audiences
• Draft conference presentation and foundation for a future peer-reviewed article
• Policy brief for Peruvian agencies and international organizations focused on conflict recovery and IPV prevention

Student Opportunities

The project will include 4 graduate students and 3 undergraduate students, ideally with backgrounds in economics, public policy, global health, political science, sociology, computer science, statistical science, environmental sciences or related fields. Experience in Spanish or knowledge of Latin America is welcomed but not required.

Students will learn to:

• Clean, merge and validate large administrative and survey datasets
• Conduct geospatial analysis using ArcGIS or Python
• Apply causal inference techniques such as regression discontinuity
• Build interactive visualizations and policy-relevant maps
• Develop open-science documentation standards
• Write policy briefs, research summaries and conference presentations
• Work collaboratively with international partners, including scholars at ETH Zurich, the World Bank and the Instituto de Estudios Peruanos

Graduate students will mentor subgroups, lead advanced quantitative analyses and gain experience managing interdisciplinary research teams.

Timing

Fall 2026 – Summer 2027

Fall 2026:

• Clean and document RUV data
• Build geocoded linkages to ENDES
• Conduct literature review and exploratory analyses

Spring 2027:

• Implement causal and spatial analyses
• Produce visualizations, research briefs and documentation
• Draft conference presentation materials

Summer 2027 (optional):

• Selected students may contribute to working paper development and additional dissemination outputs
• Possible travel to Peru for meetings with the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights (select students only)

Crediting

Academic credit available for fall and spring semesters