Background

According to the United Nations (UN), the global need for humanitarian assistance reached 360 million in 2023 – an all-time high and a thirty percent increase since 2022. However, funding increases have not kept pace with growing needs or the rising costs of delivering aid. 

Challenges that undermine the efficacy of humanitarian aid include insufficient local knowledge; a reactive rather than preventive approach; corruption and capture of aid by local authorities or armed groups; and inequalities in the targeting of assistance, which can generate intercommunal competition and conflict. This latter issue is particularly common in displacement crises where impoverished host communities may feel burdened by rapid influxes of refugees or internally displaced persons (IDPs) whom they perceive as receiving more than their fair share of international aid and local resources. 

This project will focus on the critical case of South Sudan, one of the poorest and most fragile countries in the world, where several longstanding and intertwined humanitarian, economic and security crises have been compounded by the recent outbreak of war in neighboring Sudan. According to the UN, less than half of the nine million South Sudanese currently in need of humanitarian aid are receiving assistance. In South Sudan and other contexts affected by humanitarian crises, there is an urgent need to ensure that aid is more efficiently and equitably distributed.

Project Description

This project team will develop evidence-based guidance for distributing humanitarian aid more effectively and equitably in partnership with the UN’s International Organization for Migration in South Sudan (IOM). 

Team members will refine a novel index that measures six dimensions of national-level “fragility” – societal, economic, political/legal, security, environmental/climate, and human – to inform humanitarian programming and policy in South Sudan. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development defines “fragility” as “the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacities of the state, system and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks.” This index was successfully piloted in 2023 through a household survey of 2,200 South Sudanese respondents in four counties where the IOM is engaged in humanitarian and development assistance across a range of areas, including food security, reintegration of displaced persons, climate adaptation and protection from crime and violence. 

Team members will analyze a second round of data collected in July 2024 and will develop a matrix of evidence-based decision rules to advise humanitarian and development actors on the optimal allocation of aid and programming across diverse communities with varying needs.

In addition to strengthening an already established partnership between Duke and the IOM in South Sudan, this team will also provide mentorship, capacity-building and professional development opportunities for South Sudanese students and researchers at the University of Juba.

Anticipated Outputs

Duke-IOM report summarizing study findings and recommendations for humanitarian programming and policy in South Sudan; infographics and one-page summaries to disseminate to stakeholders; academic publications

Student Opportunities

Ideally, this project team will include 3-6 graduate/professional students and 2-3 undergraduate students interested in development, peacebuilding, environmental policy, human rights and humanitarian policy in the Nile Basin. 

Team members will have the opportunity to learn more about humanitarian aid and peacebuilding, research design and ethics; analyze original data; coauthor chapters of a join IOM-Duke report on how different dimensions of fragility affect the prospects for successful reintegration of communities affected by high levels of internal and cross-border displacements; summarize and visualize research findings in other formats including social media and blog posts;, and engage with IOM and other international, regional and local stakeholders in South Sudan. 

Up to two doctoral students will have the opportunity to travel to South Sudan to meet with and workshop findings with IOM, additional UN/NGO stakeholders, and faculty and students at the University of Juba, and to conduct training for survey enumerators and focus groups to inform the next phase of research.

All students will have the opportunity to travel to Washington D.C. to meet with project partners and present findings.

Subteams

This team will break into the following subteams:

1. Quantitative Survey Design, Methods and Analysis: Students assigned to this team will focus on design and analysis of original household surveys conducted in South Sudan. Proficiency in R is required. 
2. Advocacy, Policy and Public Engagement: Students assigned to this team will focus on developing policy and programmatic recommendations, disseminating findings through social media and blog posts, and supporting presentations and events.
3. Economic Fragility: Students will work with faculty and IOM partners to coauthor the chapter of the IOM-Duke report on economic fragility, which is measured with indicators including the ability to pay unexpected costs, access to financial support from social or family networks, and dependency on aid. 
4. Environmental Fragility: Students will work with faculty and IOM partners to coauthor the chapter of the IOM-Duke report on environmental fragility, which is measured with indicators including the impact of climate change and natural disasters on household income, food consumption, health, safety and mobility. 
5. Human Fragility: Students will work with faculty and IOM partners to coauthor the chapter of the IOM-Duke report on human fragility, which is measured with indicators including mobility and access to food, water, healthcare and other basic needs.
6. Political and Legal Fragility: Students will work with faculty and IOM partners to coauthor the chapter of the IOM-Duke report on political and legal fragility, which is measured with indicators including trust in national and local government, trust in traditional authorities, participation in democracy and freedom of expression. 
7. Security Fragility: Students will work with faculty and IOM partners to coauthor the chapter of the IOM-Duke report on security fragility, which is measured with indicators including vulnerability to crime, armed conflict, and conflicts over land and other natural resources. 
8. Societal Fragility: Students will work with faculty and IOM partners to coauthor the chapter of the IOM-Duke report on societal fragility, which is measured with indicators including ethnic discrimination, inter-group trust, social cohesion, network embeddedness and civic engagement.

Timing

Fall 2024 – Summer 2025

• Fall 2024: Analyze survey data; meet monthly with IOM partners; coauthor chapters of joint Duke-IOM report; travel to Washington, D.C. to present findings
• Spring 2025: Continue meeting with IOM to develop programmatic and policy recommendations based on findings; develop research design for next phase of work, including IRB submission and questionnaire
• Summer 2025 (optional): Travel to South Sudan for up to two Ph.D. students; train enumerators; conduct focus groups; present findings; plan for next phase of work with IOM

Crediting

Academic credit available for fall and spring semesters; summer funding available